The 10 Metrics That Predict DTC Revenue Growth

Most DTC brands track vanity metrics. Here are the 10 that actually predict contribution margin, retention, and scalable growth.

Growth Intelligence metrics dashboard for DTC brands

Most DTC/CPG brands can tell you their ROAS. Some can tell you their MER. Almost none can tell you their CAC payback by micro-segment, their first-to-second purchase activation rate, or which customer cohorts actually drive contribution margin versus just top-line revenue.

Quick glossary: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) = revenue generated per dollar of ad spend. MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio) = total revenue / total marketing spend — a blended view across all channels. CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) = total acquisition spend / new customers acquired. Contribution margin = revenue minus variable costs (COGS, shipping, discounts, payment processing) — the profit left after fulfilling an order, before fixed overhead.

These are the 10 Growth Intelligence metrics we build for every DTC/CPG client. They’re organized into four clusters: Acquisition Economics, Activation Economics, Expansion & Retention, and Efficiency. The services page shows the top 5. This is the full framework.

The fundamental shift from SaaS growth metrics to DTC: SaaS measures product usage leading to revenue. DTC measures purchase behavior leading to lifetime contribution margin. Every metric below anchors to that difference.

The Growth Intelligence framework: 10 metrics across four clusters that predict DTC revenue growth

The Series

We’ve broken the full framework into four deep-dives — one per cluster — each with detailed benchmarks, real brand examples, and interactive visualizations.

Part 1: Acquisition Economics

Revenue cohorts by micro-segment and CAC payback: the two metrics that separate profitable DTC growth from expensive vanity scaling. Includes category-specific benchmarks for subscription, consumable, and beauty brands.

Part 2: Activation Economics

Activation rate, quality scoring, and touchpoint attribution — the four metrics that predict which first-time buyers become profitable repeat customers. Why the second purchase changes everything.

Part 3: Expansion & Retention

Leading expansion indicators and customer state machine: detecting who will grow and who will leave before it shows up in revenue. Intervention economics and win-back strategies.

Part 4: Efficiency Metrics

Monetization velocity and growth efficiency ratio: measuring how fast your flywheel spins and how much margin each growth dollar generates. Plus the 4-phase implementation roadmap.


These are the metrics we build during every DTC engagement. The Sprint assesses which ones your data can already support and which gaps we need to close. Book a Sprint.